EU coronavirus advisor: Europe will see 鈥榮econd wave鈥�

Europe should prepare for a 鈥渟econd wave鈥� of coronavirus Covid-19 as deconfinement continues, with the question not if, but 鈥渨hen, and how big鈥�, a leading disease prevention advisor to the EU has said.

Connexion journalist

Published Friday 22 May 2020 - 12:41 Modified Friday 22 May 2020 - 12:41

Dr. Andrea Ammon, director of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), based in Sweden, which advises governments in the EU - including France and the UK - on disease control, made the statement in this week.

The comments come as many EU nations begin to relax the rules on confinement and lockdown.

Virus still circulating and 鈥榥ot over鈥�

Dr. Ammon said: 鈥淭he virus is around us, circulating much more than in January and February...I don鈥檛 want to draw a doomsday picture but I think we have to be realistic. That now is not the time to completely relax.鈥�

She said that population immunity across Europe was 鈥渘ot all that exciting鈥�, and ranged from just 2-14%, leaving 鈥�85-90% of the population susceptible鈥�.

According to the official counts, France has the third-highest level of deaths in Europe at 28,022, behind the UK (35,341) and Italy (32,169).

The ECDC said that Europe had 鈥減assed the peak鈥� of infections by May 2 (except in Poland), but warned that this did not mean the situation was safe.

She said: 鈥淓specially now when it is clear [infections] are going down, people think it is over. Which it isn鈥檛...it definitely isn鈥檛.鈥�

Long battle will see holidays restricted

Dr. Ammon said that it is likely the world will be dealing with SARS-Cov-2 - which causes Covid-19 - for a long time.

She said: 鈥淚 don鈥檛 know whether it鈥檚 forever but I don鈥檛 think it will go away very quickly. It seems to be very well adapted to humans.鈥�

She warned that many will be disappointed and will not be able to book their usual holidays, and suggested that one of the reasons that the virus had spread so quickly in Europe was because people had been travelling to and from ski breaks in February and March.

She said: 鈥淏ecause at that time we saw new cases all over Europe [and] actually [they] had been in the skiing places in the Alps, in Italy, Austria. I mean this is a crowded place, the ski resorts, and then you have these cabins that you go up the mountain and these are really crammed.

鈥淚t is just perfect for such a virus. I am pretty sure that this contributed to the spread in Europe.鈥�

On the subject of summer holidays, she said: 鈥淲hat we are saying is that they should be prepared that even if there are some holidays and they go somewhere, it will not be comparable to what they had last year.

鈥淎t this stage we cannot say you can go out there, wash your hands and everything is fine. You have to keep your distance. These measures have to be in place.鈥�

She warned that it was not only the elderly and vulnerable who are at risk, and that younger, healthy people are too.

She said: 鈥淧eople who are perfectly healthy are also getting severe illness, and they die. Knowing what we have seen in Europe, with approximately 10% of the population [infected] there is not, for me, an option to let this go.

鈥淚f the other 90% were affected as well, I think we don鈥檛 want to think of this.鈥�

Deconfinement measures

The comments come as France continues its deconfinement plan.

Most shops are open - with restrictions - and some leisure sites and outdoors open spaces have also re-opened.

However, authorities still retain the power to re-close areas if they see fit.

This happened in northern France this week, with local authorities closing beaches in the department of Morbihan due to 鈥渦nacceptable behaviour鈥� and people failing to respect physical distancing rules (staying at least 1-2 metres away from other people not in your household).

Voil脿, voil脿 (tr猫s intelligent de fermer des plages. Tout le monde se concentre sur les quelques-unes ouvertes)

鈥� Herv茅 Chambonni猫re (@HChambo)

Similarly, in Paris, police dispersed crowds from the lawns in front of Les Invalides, after hundreds of residents took advantage of the good weather to sit on the grass, making physical distancing impossible.

The ECDC comments also come less than a week before the French government is set to announce whether the health situation will allow it to enact the second phase of deconfinement, including whether to allow cafes and restaurants to reopen by July.

It was fun while it lasted. Paris police politely disperse the crowd; crowd politely complies. But there鈥檚 no way a return to lockdown mode is going to work
— Lionel Laurent (@LionelRALaurent)

Previous French studies have suggested that a 鈥渟econd wave鈥� of the virus would be inevitable in France (and beyond), and that it would take 鈥渨eeks or months鈥� to know if deconfinement had been a 鈥渟uccess鈥� or not.